Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.012600 0.014250 0.016035 0.018111 0.020460 0.023035 0.026073
2025-10-26 0.009850 0.012088 0.014715 0.018027 0.022095 0.026934 0.033135
2025-11-02 0.008348 0.010834 0.013918 0.018028 0.023371 0.030093 0.039209
2025-11-09 0.007160 0.009727 0.013059 0.017706 0.024034 0.032367 0.044212
2025-11-16 0.006443 0.009106 0.012702 0.017921 0.025318 0.035458 0.050469
2025-11-23 0.005752 0.008423 0.012158 0.017773 0.026024 0.037747 0.055746
2025-11-30 0.005349 0.008090 0.012049 0.018196 0.027534 0.041244 0.063014
2025-12-07 0.004747 0.007397 0.011339 0.017644 0.027517 0.042459 0.066928
2025-12-14 0.004302 0.006892 0.010853 0.017367 0.027864 0.044205 0.071753
2025-12-21 0.003866 0.006357 0.010267 0.016868 0.027793 0.045261 0.075524
2025-12-28 0.003711 0.006257 0.010353 0.017446 0.029493 0.049255 0.084405
2026-01-04 0.003521 0.006081 0.010298 0.017776 0.030793 0.052674 0.092583
2026-01-11 0.003359 0.005941 0.010297 0.018210 0.032328 0.056651 0.102145
2026-01-18 0.003118 0.005643 0.010002 0.018106 0.032914 0.059039 0.109111
2026-01-25 0.002918 0.005401 0.009780 0.018108 0.033678 0.061783 0.116931
2026-02-01 0.002690 0.005085 0.009401 0.017785 0.033809 0.063374 0.122714
2026-02-08 0.002559 0.004939 0.009316 0.018000 0.034958 0.066924 0.132517
2026-02-15 0.002391 0.004708 0.009054 0.017851 0.035390 0.069140 0.139882
2026-02-22 0.002309 0.004636 0.009087 0.018276 0.036973 0.073690 0.152282
2026-03-01 0.002118 0.004332 0.008646 0.017722 0.036547 0.074237 0.156534
2026-03-08 0.001975 0.004112 0.008354 0.017444 0.036657 0.075854 0.163129
2026-03-15 0.001820 0.003857 0.007970 0.016942 0.036257 0.076390 0.167451
2026-03-22 0.001785 0.003851 0.008096 0.017523 0.038195 0.081945 0.183121